Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
