A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
